Reflection paper Research Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Reflection - Research Paper Example The tutor and fellow colleagues have made my studies and stay at college very enjoyable. For instance, the group discussions and regular brainstorming sessions made studies practical and played an important role in developing my thinking skills. Pursuing this course has been the greatest achievement in my life. In fact, since the start of the course, things have been developing gradually to the positive side. Studying this course has changed my point of view to life in many ways. For Instance, by attending group discussions and engaging in brainstorming sessions, I developed effective socializing skills. Working in groups gave an idea about the importance of teamwork in executing assigned task. In addition, it assisted me develop the courage to face people and present my opinions without fear. Consequently, I have learned social networking skills that can be applied in daily life situations. The knowledge gained throughout the course has made me develop a positive attitude towards life. Learning challenges such as meeting deadlines for assignments and having a bulk of topics to work on taught me to be active always. Additionally, I now understand the importance of information technology to people and businesses. Essentially, I can give direction to an individual or an organization on the best information technology strategy to employ in the management of daily operations. My level of knowledge for the topics taught in the course is above average. Presently, I can handle many problems related to computer science and information technology. Actually, I can advise an organization or a company on a number of issues relating effective information technology mechanisms. Apparently, I can afford to fix some technical problems that affect communication devices such as computers and smartphones. In essence, my level of knowledge regarding technology has been elevated, thereby laying the foundation for further studies. The mode of study for the entire period

Executive Summary Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Executive Summary - Assignment Example Studies have shown that women prisoners are more infected by HIV and drug abuse as compare to male prisoners (Dolan et al, 2007). They have been found more exposed to gender based sexual assaults; such female prisoners may found suffering from personality and behaviour disorders, drug use, and unsafe practices such as tattooing with many other disorders that may threat the security of other people around them. Target Audience of the Project: The project is designed to target the female prisoners as this group has been found more prone to gender-based violence and do not receive any or special treatments in prison. To provide quality healthcare services to female prisoners suffering from HIV has become as a challenge for the correctional authorities (Plugge, 2006). Female prisoners constitute a small fraction of population imprisoned. Different females have been found imprisoned due to different reasons. A majority of female prisoners have been found engaged in drug use by injecting t he large amounts of seductive and, on the other hand, majority of other female prisoners have been found HIV carriers. Such women need psychological help, social support and quality healthcare facilities to help them overcome their health issues and to infuse positivity in their minds (Rickford, 2003). It should be kept in mind that the current healthcare programs were initially designed for male inmates as they hold the largest population in jails all around the world and especially in American prisons (Plugge, 2006). All over the world, female prisoners constitute about 5% of the total population imprisoned (Rickford, 2003). The Benefits of the Program: The program is intended to help the female prisoners suffering from HIV. This program is tailored to meet their social, psychological and healthcare needs in the period of distress. Few of the benefits of this program are: It would help in providing information to the female prisoners on HIV. This program would create awareness on how to prevent HIV transmission, treatment process, testing methods and how the risk of HIV can be minimized. The program would help the female prisoners to get a free HIV testing facility along with counselling services. The program would overall benefit the female inmates in diagnosing and treating the HIV, overcoming the other STDs and other diseases that may rise from the uses of drugs especially injections. The program is focused on benefiting the overall health of the female inmates especially their diets and adopting measures that would help them to overcome their nutritional deficiencies. The program is also focused on providing palliative care to terminally ill female prisoners along with facilitating post-exposure prophylaxis to those female prisoners who are already at risk of HIV. The Budget Justification: This program would run on funds collected from government and semi-government institutions. To meet the healthcare requirements of female patients; charities and promo tional campaigns would be launched soon to meet the financial needs of the program. Awareness programs would be launched in colleges and universities to collect funds from the students as well as different marketing strategies would be incorporated to meet the budge requirements and to help people know about the cause. Program Evaluation: The program would be evaluated on the following basis: How soon can we extend

Asset Returns in African Stock Market Indexes

Asset Returns in African Stock Market Indexes 1.0 INTRODUCTION Financial markets are important in an economy in that they involve lots of monetary funds in the capital markets. These funds enable firms to raise finance in the form of equities and debts as means to finance expansion or expenses. Hence they serve the intermediation process and also provide a means for investors to diversify their portfolio of assets. African stock markets have been subject to economic restructuration as well as stock exchange modernisation these recent years. They now face regional and global integration and so the need to investigate their returns characteristics. Efficiency is an integral part of investment valuation. When markets are efficient, security prices are properly valued as they absorb all information at each point of time. This leads to optimal allocation of private and social resources. Moreover, investors may not beat the market and make abnormally higher returns than others, based on information asymmetry. Conversely, inefficiency leads to market prices deviating from actual value. Hence, those having reasonable level of expertise in the field of valuation will be able to spot and exploit above and under-valued stocks. Efficiency in equity markets is of significance to investors and policymakers in African markets. The concept has been widely applied to developed countries but less attention has been devoted to less developed ones. These researches indicate the importance of developing stock markets for countries which are at appropriate stage of economic growth. Indeed, it is more convenient to test for weak form efficiency of market rather than testing for semi-strong or strong forms of efficiency due to lack of data and supervision pertaining to those markets. 1.1 Organisation of the paper The objective of this study is to examine the possibility of both short- and long-term memory in asset returns in selected African markets stock indexes. Besides South Africa, all the other markets are still in developing state so that efficiency can be gauged on basis of market development and size. The paper is organised as follows: * Section 2 describes informational efficiency with emphasis on weak-form efficiency and random walk. Critics relating to the latter are then raised to emphasise on non-linearity and long-term dimensions. * Section 3 provides a brief description of the characteristics of the selected African stock markets as well as their respective indices. * A methodological discussion based on the different random walks and long-term analysis is then presented in the fourth section. * Tests, results and discussions are provided in section 5. The possible explanations for efficiency or inefficiency pertaining to the respective markets are also made. * Finally, we conclude in section 6 and make policy recommendations as well as future scope for research. 1.2 Limitations of the Study This paper in centered on market efficiency. However, given the excessive literature that exists in this field, it is beyond the scope this study to review all the previous works related to the study. We therefore provide only a short discussion on the main findings associated to the weak-form efficiency or random walk hypothesis to provide a general overview of the paper. Besides, the main limitation of this paper is that we restrict to the weak-form efficiency using time series analysis. Consequently, the statistical tests are only used to test for market efficiency excluding any transaction costs adjustment such as the bid-ask spread. Finally, we use daily data for the analysis though it may lead to possible biasness in the observations. We believe that using a longer time period would help to reduce this problem. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.0 Introduction Efficient market hypothesis is one of the most researched topics in the realm of the stock market. While most of the early studies have previously been centered on developed stock markets like USA, Japan and Europe, developing and emerging stock markets have been brushed aside. Before proceeding with a systematic and ordered approach, it might be useful to present a general review of the theory under study, which in turn aims at defining the main concepts and demonstrating familiarity with previous relevant findings concerning the same field of research. 2.1 Theoretical review In this section, we develop a formal view of the weak-form efficiency as well as the random walk hypothesis. Starting with the martingale model, necessary assumptions are made to develop a model consistent with Lo and McKinley (1997) model specification. Making the necessary assumptions about the model, a formal presentation of the different random walks is made and criticised. 2.1.1 Market efficiency Efficiency has various different contextual meanings but analysis of financial markets assumes an informational dimension. The attribute of those markets by virtue of which they respond to new information, is called informational efficiency. This implies that current market price reacts instantaneously to new information so that it incorporates all relevant information. Since, by definition, new information is unpredictable, it follows that change in stock price cannot be anticipated and thus move in a random manner. Informational efficiency can be related to the hypothesis of random walk which assumes that prices do not exhibit predictive patterns over time and follow a random walk. Hence, prediction of future prices in absolute terms, based singly on information about historical price, will be unsuccessful. The theory had its roots from the early works of Bachelier (1900). In his own words, Bachelier argued that â€Å"past, present and even discounted future events are reflected in market price, but often show no apparent relation to price changes†. This emphasises the informational content of stock prices. In his paper on the behaviour of stock and commodity prices, Maurice Kendall (1953) further supported the random walk theory. The findings, unexpectedly, showed that prices follow a random walk and not regular cycles. His conclusion was that the series appeared ‘wandering, ‘Almost as if once a week the Demon of Chance drew a random number from a symmetrical population of fixed dispersion and added it to the current price to determine the next weeks price In his thesis, Behaviour of stock market prices, Fama supported the random walk theory where he reviewed previous works on stock price movements. He concluded that â€Å"it seems safe to say that this paper has presented strong and voluminous evidence in favour of the random walk hypothesis.† Indeed in a market where prices are determined rationally, only new information will cause them to change. Hence prices follow a random walk to reflect all current knowledge. If price prediction were possible, this would have caused market inefficiency as prices dont incorporate all information. Fama (1965) was the first one who coined the term efficient market. He held that such a market is one constituting of a large number of competing rational and active profit-maximisers who try to predict individual values of securities. Information in those markets tends to be almost free. He argued that the essence of ‘instantaneous adjustment in actual prices to new information is competition leading to efficiency in the market. Later, the random walk theory was broadened into a concept called the efficient market theory. Based on the works of Samuelson (1965) and Roberts (1967), Fama (1970) developed a second paper: Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. He distinguished between three levels of efficiency, as earlier initiated by Roberts (1967), based on three sets of information reflected in the price. He posited that a market is efficient in the weak-form if any information which might be contained in past price movements is already reflected in the security prices. It is semi-strong efficient when all relevant publicly available information is impounded in security prices while strong form efficiency suggests that security prices already reflect all available information, even private information. In this stream of literature, Malkiel (1992) contribution is elaborated in his essay Efficient market hypothesis in the New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance. He defines a capital market as efficient when it fully and correctly reflects all relevant information in security price determination. Hence, for some information set, à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t, the market is efficient if security prices are unaffected by unveiling that information to market participants. Then it becomes impossible to make economic profits by exploiting the information set. Hence, both the random walk theory and the EMH are related to informational efficiency. Then the form of efficiency under consideration will depend upon the information set, à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t, which determines the level of efficiency. 2.1.2 Weak Form Efficiency: Random walk and its critics Weak-form efficiency focuses on the informational content of the previous sequence of stock price movements. An informational efficient market postulates that excess return cannot be realised from information contained in past prices. The rationale behind weak-form efficiency is that stock prices are the most publicly available information so that an investor may not be able to use information, which is already available to others, to beat the market. A long considered necessary condition for an efficient asset market is the martingale process. Under market efficiency, the conditional expectation of future price changes, conditional on the price history, cannot be either positive or negative and therefore must be zero. In fact the martingale originated from gambling and the concept of fair game. Samuelson (1965) and Mandelbrot (1966) independently demonstrated that a sequence of prices of an asset is a martingale (or a fair game) if it has unbiased price changes. Danthine (1977), LeRoy (1976, 1989), Huang (1985) and Neftci (2000) held that if a security market can be equilibrium and for sure be a fair game, then the following equations must hold: Ept+1ÃŽ ©t=pt (1) Ept+1-ptÃŽ ©t=0 (1.1) Where t denotes the price of an asset at date t, à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t is a set of all past and current information regarding prices pt,pt-1,pt-2†¦.. and pt+1-pt=rt. Hence, the directions of the future movements in martingales are impossible to forecast. If pt is a martingale in equation (1), the best forecast of pt+1 that could be derived on basis of current information ÃŽ ©t, equals pt. For equation (1.1), rt is a fair game if the forecast is zero for any possible value of ÃŽ ©t. Then pt is a martingale only if rt is a fair game. In this case, asset price evolves in a random process so that the correlation coefficient between the successive price changes will be zero given information about current and past prices. However, most assets are expected to yield a non-zero and positive returns. The martingale hypothesis does not take into account the trade-off between risk and return as pointed out in financial economics. The model implicitly assumes risk neutrality while investors are generally risk averse. In fact, an investor is likely to hold more risky assets provided they are compensated in terms of higher expected returns. In this case, knowledge of the riskiness of current information set implies some awareness about the expected returns. Hence the equilibrium model shall predict a positive price change in the assets price though the actual return is still unforecastable under market efficiency. Then an asset model, considering positive returns, may be formulated as Fama (1970). He suggested the sub-martingale process: Ept+1à ¢Ã†â€™Ã¢â‚¬Å"à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t≠¥pt or alternatively Ert+1à ¢Ã†â€™Ã¢â‚¬Å"à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t≠¥0 (1.2) This states that the expected value of next periods price based on the information available at time t, à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t, is equal to or greater than the current price. Equivalently, it stipulates that the expected returns and price changes are greater or equal to zero. Market efficiency plus an equilibrium model for asset pricing normally produces a random character to asset prices or returns or excess returns. The equilibrium model generally shows how the assets expected return varies with its risk and this can be closely related to Famas sub-martingale model. However, the representative model for the asset uses log prices and the expected continuously compounded return, rt+1. Ert+1ÃŽ ©t=pt+1-pt (1.3) Under the efficient market hypothesis, investors cannot earn abnormal profits on the available information set other than by chance. This is in line with Jensen (1978) who defines a market as efficient with respect to the information set, à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t, if it not possible to make economic profits on the basis of this set of information. Hence, defining excess returns as zt+1: zt+1=rt+1-Ert+1à ¢Ã†â€™Ã¢â‚¬Å"à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t (1.4) Since market efficiency implies that all information is already impounded in stock prices, the following applies: Ezt+1à ¢Ã†â€™Ã¢â‚¬Å"à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t=0 (1.5) Under the assumption that the equilibrium model determining asset prices in (1.3) is assumed to be constant over time, the deduction is that expected return does not depend on the information available at time t such that: pt+1-pt=Ert+1à ¢Ã†â€™Ã¢â‚¬Å"à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t=Ert+1=r (1.6) Therefore market efficiency produces a result that implies that the changes in asset prices follow a random walk. The appropriate model would then be a random walk with drift where the arbitrary drift parameter, reflects how prices change on average to provide returns to holding the asset over time. The following equation sets the random walk model similar to the one defined by Lo and MacKinlay (1997): pt+1= ÃŽ ¼+pt+ ÃŽ µt+1 (1.7) rt= ÃŽ ¼+ÃŽ ±rt-1+ ÃŽ µt (1.8) If the stock price index follows a random walk, then, ÃŽ ± = 0. Generally, if stock prices and returns are unpredictable then time series have the property of random walk and white noise implying the validity of EMH. Thus, given an equilibrium model for asset pricing, the test for weak-form efficiency is that of random walk tests of market efficiency. Ko and lee (1991) maintained that â€Å"If the random walk hypothesis holds, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis must hold, but not vice versa. Thus, evidence supporting the random walk model is the evidence of market efficiency. But violation of the random walk model need not be evidence of market inefficiency in the weak form†. Depending on the restrictions put on the increments,ÃŽ µt+1, different forms of the random walk are tested. Within the random walk hypothesis, three successively more restrictive sub-hypotheses with sequentially stronger tests for random walks exists (Campbell et al. 1997). These are range from the most restrictive form of Random Walk 1 (RW1) to the least restrictive one which is the Random Walk 3 (RW3). Based on their extensive research, the orthogonality condition for the random walk is: covfrtgrt+k=0 (1.8) Where frt and grt+k are two arbitrary functions and rt and rt+k refers to the returns for period t and t+k respectively. If (1.9) holds for all functions frt,grt+k this corresponds to RW1 and RW2. The former is the most restrictive version of random walk model implying it is not possible to predict either future price movements or volatility based on past prices. It states that returns are serially uncorrelated with independently and identically distributed increments with mean, zero and variance, ÏÆ'2. Under RW2, the returns are serially uncorrelated, corresponding with a random walk hypothesis with increments that are independent but not identically distributed. In case frt,grt+k are arbitrary linear functions, the RW3 applies so that it is not possible to use information on the basis of past prices to predict future prices. Hence, returns in a market conforming to this standard of random walk are serially uncorrelated, corresponding to a random walk hypothesis with dependent but uncorrelated increments. The foundation of traditional tests of random walk rests on the assumption of IID. The most famous tests remain the sequences and reversals test proposed by Cowles and Jones (1937) and the runs test. Tests of RW2 and RW3 encompass the variance ratio tests and unit root tests which are more recent tools. Developed by Lo and MacKinlay (1988), hereby LM, the variance ratio tests out that the variance of the innovations pertaining to a random walk model is linear functions of time. This popular test does not restrict only to the RW1 but also to the RW2 and RW3. However, exclusion of non-linear analysis in financial series could lead to inappropriate deductions as regards weak-form efficiency. Indeed, the application of non-linear dynamics and chaos theory to financial series has shown that they evidence non-linear structure. In practice, returns distributions exhibit leptokurtic behaviours as opposed to normal distribution. They often reflect volatility clustering thereby the level of volatility in the next period tends to be positively correlated with its current level. Then it may be possible for information on the variance of past prices to predict the future volatility of the market. Indeed, share price movements could be unpredictable when using linear models but forecastable under non-linear models in the ‘short-run. This contradicts the use of linear models for testing the efficient market hypothesis. Further departures from the random walk hypothesis exist in the long-range dependence. This is analogous to high autocorrelation structure in a series so that there is persistent dependence between distant observations. In this case covfrtgrt+k does not tend to zero at higher lags. As regards market efficiency, persistence implies that past data contain useful information for prediction so that long memory violates the concept. Several tests have been developed for this purpose including the rescaled statistic to test for long-term ‘randomness of the market series and the ARFIMA-FIGARCH which categorises the long- and short-term memory based on the estimated value of the fractional difference. 2.2 Empirical Review Following the work of Fama (1965) â€Å"Random walk in stock prices† arguing for random walk hypothesis, a multitude of research has been performed throughout the world. While most of the well developed markets were found to be efficient, research findings of developing and less developed markets are mixed and controversial too. Most of the less developed market encounters the problem of thin trading. Besides, it is easier for large traders to manipulate small markets. Though emerging markets are generally assumed to be less efficient, empirical evidence does not always support the idea. Some previous research aiming at testing the weak-form efficiency of a particular group of stock markets are presented below. A research that aims at testing weak-form market efficiency in the equity markets of the three main Central European transition economies (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) is that of Gilmore and McManus (2001). Using different approaches comprising of univariate, multivariate tests as well as the model-comparison approach for the period July 1995 to September 2000 different conclusion were drawn. While the serial correlation-based tests largely support a conclusion that these markets are weak-form efficient, the results of comparing forecasts of alternative models are consistent in rejecting the random walk hypothesis. Examining the existence of weak-form efficiency in European stock market, Worthington and Higgs (2003) used daily returns for sixteen developed markets (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) and four emerging markets (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia) to perform a number of testing procedures of random walk. They started with the serial correlation coefficient test and the runs test, and found that Netherlands and Germany do follow a random walk while the United Kingdom, Ireland and Portugal were efficient under one test or the other. All remaining markets were weak form inefficient. Beside unit root tests (ADF, PP statistics and KPSS), the multiple variance ratio tests rejected the presence of random walk in most of the markets. While in the developed markets only the United Kingdom, Portugal, Ireland, Sweden and Germany satisfied the most stringent rand om walk criteria, in emerging markets only Hungary did so. Weak-form efficiency for emerging equity markets were also tested by Chang, Lima and Tabak (2003). They deduced that random walk hypothesis is not consistent with Asian equity markets while left apart Chile, Latin American indices resemble a random walk. Using daily prices from January 1992 to December 2002, multivariate variance ratios using heteroscedastic robust bootstrap procedures and test trading rules using trading range break (TRB) levels were employed. Taking the US and Japan as yardsticks, they were not able to reject the random walk hypothesis. Another study considering a group of selected Asian markets; Kim and Shamsuddin (2008) argues that market efficiency varies with the level of stock market development. Using new multiple variance ratio tests based on the wild bootstrap and signs as well as the conventional Chow-Denning test, they found that the Hong Kong, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese markets adhere to the martingale property while Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines markets are inefficient. Besides, the results revealed evidence that the Singaporean and Thai markets followed a random walk after the Asian crisis. As regards the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) stock markets, Elango and Hussein (2008) tested whether daily returns series are an approximation of normal distribution or not. Dubai, AbuDhabi, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain stock market indices were examined using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Runs test, Autocorrelation Function and Partial Autocorrelation Functions. The results revealed that the distribution of daily returns on these markets deviated from the normal distribution during the study period. Also, the runs test rejected the hypothesis of random walk for all seven markets. In his paper investigating the random walk hypothesis, Urrutia (1995), used monthly data from December 1975 to March 1991 for four Latin American equity markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico to observe whether they are weak-form efficient. He made use of the Variance-ratio tests and the runs tests. While results of the variance ratio estimatespixel rejects the random walk hypothesis, runs tests specify that Latin American equity markets are weak-form efficient. These empirical findings suggest that domestic investors might not be able to develop trading strategies that would allow them to earn excess returns. Using Lo-MacKinlay Variance ratio, Wrights rank and sign VR and the standard runs tests; Al-Khazali, Ding and Pyun (2007) revisited the validity of random walk hypothesis in eight emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia. When assessed by Wrights (2000) rank and sign VR test, all the markets rejected the hypothesis of random walk. However, once data are reconciled for distortions from thinly and infrequently traded stocks, all eight stock markets do follow a random walk. African countries were investigated in the paper ‘How Efficient are Africas Emerging Stock Markets by Magnusson and Wydick (2002). Testing procedures considered monthly data for eight African markets in comparison with nine other developing countries in Latin America and Asia. Distinguishing among the three types of random walk models, they started by testing the RW 3, by investigating the Partial Auto-Correlation Function(PACF) of the historical series and examining whether they are statistically different from zero. Markets in Botswana, Cote dIvoire, Kenya, Mauritius and South Africa did conform to the RW3 while those of Ghana, Nigeria and Zimbabwe were rejected. Proceeding with the RW2, excluding Botswana, results did not change. However none of the African Markets were conform to the RW1 White test for heteroscedasticity. They conclude that African countries do conform quite favourably to some regions of the developing world. Another research which focuses on African markets was that of Jefferis and Smith (2005). It covers seven African stock markets: South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Mauritius and Kenya and use a GARCH approach with time-varying parameters to detect changes in weak-form efficiency through time. They emphasised on RW 3 model with volatilities changing over time and found that Johannesburg stock market was weak-form efficient with no tendency to change like many other developed markets. On the other hand, the stock markets of Egypt, Morocco and Nigeria showed changing levels of inefficiencies to become weak-form efficient towards the end of the period. The results for Kenya, Zimbabwe and Mauritius, however, showed tendency towards efficiency and rejected the hypothesis of weak-form efficiency. Recently, McMillan and Thupayagale (2009) in their paper â€Å"The efficiency of African equity markets† examined long memory effects of both equity returns and volatility for eleven African countries, taking the UK and US as reference. They made use of unit roots test and the GARCH(1,1) models before proceeding with ARFIMA-FIGARCH and ARFIMA-HYGARCH models. They ended up with mixed results. The ARFIMA-FIGARCH models provide evidence for long term memory in African equity markets with the exception of Mauritius, Morocco, Botswana and Nigeria where the results were unpredictable. Also, the US stock return volatility was marked by long memory process while the UK was non-stationary. These results were further supported by the ARFIMA-HYGARCH models. 2.3 Conclusion During the course of the literature review, limited evidence on weak form efficiency of African markets was found. These countries have attracted significant investment these last years and are of much importance to portfolio managers. Univariate time series analysis might be important tool for technical analysts in trying to outperform these markets. Indeed, the battery of econometrics software now paves the way for investigation of the random walk hypothesis based on different sets of assumption. A preliminary analysis of the African markets shall provide us with an insight to efficiency based on their attributes and consultation of previous works. GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE AFRICAN STOCK MARKETS 3.0 Introduction African stock markets, following in the wake of the surge in the world stock markets over the few decades, are starting to take off. Recognizing the importance of stock markets in economic development, several African countries launched stock exchanges during the past two decades. The African Stock Exchange Association (ASEA) was, hence, set up in 1993 so as to promote the development of stock markets. Prior to 1989, there were just five stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa and three in North Africa. Today, Africa has about 20 active stock markets, with some exchanges more established than others, depending on when they were established. Alongside the rapid expansion of stock markets in the continent, there has also been a significant growth in market capitalization and the number of listed companies. However, with the exception of the well established markets, stock markets in Africa remain thin and illiquid. This study covers four African stock markets namely South Africa, Mauritius , Morocco and Egypt over periods for which data is available. Mauritius Stock Exchange Since its start of trading on the 5th July 1989 under the Stock Exchange Act of 1988, the Mauritius Stock Exchange (SEM) has come a long way. From a pre-emerging market with trading taking place only once a week, the SEM has emerged as one of the leading exchanges in Africa. It operates two markets namely the Official and the Development and Enterprise market (DEM), established in August 2006 to replace the over-the-counter market. The exchange is regulated by the Financial Services Commission. As the second sub-Saharan stock exchange member of the World Federation of Exchanges, SEM operates in line with international standards. In addition, its developing institutional and retail investor base make it an attractive investment destination for foreign investors. The SEM offers quite a limited range of products to its investors and the aim for the next few years would be to increase the range of products offered. The three main indices of the official market are namely the SEMDEX, SEM- 7 and the SEMTRI. As at 30 June 2009, some 40 companies, with a market capitalisation of Rs 130.77 bn, are listed on the Official market and 52 companies, with a market capitalisation of Rs 45.41 bn, are listed on the Development and Enterprise Market (DEM). The SEM maintained an upward momentum, amidst typical market fluctuations, until the end of February 2008. The total market capitalization of the Official Market and the DEM was Rs 173.1 bn at end 2007. This is in line with the levels observed in well-established emerging stock markets. However, like other exchanges, the SEM experienced market volatility since the start of the financial crisis in September 2008. The main pillars of the Mauritian economy were adversely affected and this reflected on hotels and banks stocks listed on the SEM. The market then picked-up by mid-March 2009 on the back of interest rate cuts and stimulus packages put forward by the Government of Mauritius. Johannesburg Stock Exchange The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), regulated by the Financial Services Board under the Securities Services Act 2004, is the largest exchange in Africa and among the top twenty largest in the world in terms of market capitalisation. JSE Securities Exchange existed since November 1887 and was incorporated as a public limited company on 1st July 2005, pursuant to its demutualization. Since then, the JSE has evolved from a traditional floor based equities trading market to a modern securities exchange providing fully electronic trading, clearing and settlement in equities, financial and agricultural derivatives and other associated instruments and has extensive surveillance capabilities. Technical agreement with the London Stock Exchange (LSE) enables dual primary listings on both exchanges since 2001. Between the listed entity and its trusted trading platforms the South African economy becomes an active hub of activity where expansion is encouraged, businesses are enhanced, performa nce is driven and shareholder value is created. The JSE currently operates four boards for the equities market and the South African bond market is a leader among emerging-market economies. The main market indices are Top 40, Industrial 25, All Share, Oil and Gas Index. As the gateway to Africas economy, the JSE provides the link between international markets and the continent. In 2008, a daily average of 334 million shares was traded on the JSE. At year-end, there were 992 listed securities on the JSE with a total market capitalisation of R4,514 billion compared to R5,696 billion in 2007. Casablanca Stock Exchange Founded in 1929, the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) in Morocco is relatively modern, having experienced reform in 1993. The exchange is well regulated by the Conseil Deontologique des Valeurs Mobilieres (CDVM). Originally, CSE had the Index de la Bourse des Valeurs de Casablanca (IGB) but this was replaced on January 2002 by two indexes: MASI (Moroccan All Shares Index) which comprises all listed shares, allows to follow up all listed values and to have a long-term visibility and MADEX (Moroccan Most Active Shares Index), comprisi Asset Returns in African Stock Market Indexes Asset Returns in African Stock Market Indexes 1.0 INTRODUCTION Financial markets are important in an economy in that they involve lots of monetary funds in the capital markets. These funds enable firms to raise finance in the form of equities and debts as means to finance expansion or expenses. Hence they serve the intermediation process and also provide a means for investors to diversify their portfolio of assets. African stock markets have been subject to economic restructuration as well as stock exchange modernisation these recent years. They now face regional and global integration and so the need to investigate their returns characteristics. Efficiency is an integral part of investment valuation. When markets are efficient, security prices are properly valued as they absorb all information at each point of time. This leads to optimal allocation of private and social resources. Moreover, investors may not beat the market and make abnormally higher returns than others, based on information asymmetry. Conversely, inefficiency leads to market prices deviating from actual value. Hence, those having reasonable level of expertise in the field of valuation will be able to spot and exploit above and under-valued stocks. Efficiency in equity markets is of significance to investors and policymakers in African markets. The concept has been widely applied to developed countries but less attention has been devoted to less developed ones. These researches indicate the importance of developing stock markets for countries which are at appropriate stage of economic growth. Indeed, it is more convenient to test for weak form efficiency of market rather than testing for semi-strong or strong forms of efficiency due to lack of data and supervision pertaining to those markets. 1.1 Organisation of the paper The objective of this study is to examine the possibility of both short- and long-term memory in asset returns in selected African markets stock indexes. Besides South Africa, all the other markets are still in developing state so that efficiency can be gauged on basis of market development and size. The paper is organised as follows: * Section 2 describes informational efficiency with emphasis on weak-form efficiency and random walk. Critics relating to the latter are then raised to emphasise on non-linearity and long-term dimensions. * Section 3 provides a brief description of the characteristics of the selected African stock markets as well as their respective indices. * A methodological discussion based on the different random walks and long-term analysis is then presented in the fourth section. * Tests, results and discussions are provided in section 5. The possible explanations for efficiency or inefficiency pertaining to the respective markets are also made. * Finally, we conclude in section 6 and make policy recommendations as well as future scope for research. 1.2 Limitations of the Study This paper in centered on market efficiency. However, given the excessive literature that exists in this field, it is beyond the scope this study to review all the previous works related to the study. We therefore provide only a short discussion on the main findings associated to the weak-form efficiency or random walk hypothesis to provide a general overview of the paper. Besides, the main limitation of this paper is that we restrict to the weak-form efficiency using time series analysis. Consequently, the statistical tests are only used to test for market efficiency excluding any transaction costs adjustment such as the bid-ask spread. Finally, we use daily data for the analysis though it may lead to possible biasness in the observations. We believe that using a longer time period would help to reduce this problem. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.0 Introduction Efficient market hypothesis is one of the most researched topics in the realm of the stock market. While most of the early studies have previously been centered on developed stock markets like USA, Japan and Europe, developing and emerging stock markets have been brushed aside. Before proceeding with a systematic and ordered approach, it might be useful to present a general review of the theory under study, which in turn aims at defining the main concepts and demonstrating familiarity with previous relevant findings concerning the same field of research. 2.1 Theoretical review In this section, we develop a formal view of the weak-form efficiency as well as the random walk hypothesis. Starting with the martingale model, necessary assumptions are made to develop a model consistent with Lo and McKinley (1997) model specification. Making the necessary assumptions about the model, a formal presentation of the different random walks is made and criticised. 2.1.1 Market efficiency Efficiency has various different contextual meanings but analysis of financial markets assumes an informational dimension. The attribute of those markets by virtue of which they respond to new information, is called informational efficiency. This implies that current market price reacts instantaneously to new information so that it incorporates all relevant information. Since, by definition, new information is unpredictable, it follows that change in stock price cannot be anticipated and thus move in a random manner. Informational efficiency can be related to the hypothesis of random walk which assumes that prices do not exhibit predictive patterns over time and follow a random walk. Hence, prediction of future prices in absolute terms, based singly on information about historical price, will be unsuccessful. The theory had its roots from the early works of Bachelier (1900). In his own words, Bachelier argued that â€Å"past, present and even discounted future events are reflected in market price, but often show no apparent relation to price changes†. This emphasises the informational content of stock prices. In his paper on the behaviour of stock and commodity prices, Maurice Kendall (1953) further supported the random walk theory. The findings, unexpectedly, showed that prices follow a random walk and not regular cycles. His conclusion was that the series appeared ‘wandering, ‘Almost as if once a week the Demon of Chance drew a random number from a symmetrical population of fixed dispersion and added it to the current price to determine the next weeks price In his thesis, Behaviour of stock market prices, Fama supported the random walk theory where he reviewed previous works on stock price movements. He concluded that â€Å"it seems safe to say that this paper has presented strong and voluminous evidence in favour of the random walk hypothesis.† Indeed in a market where prices are determined rationally, only new information will cause them to change. Hence prices follow a random walk to reflect all current knowledge. If price prediction were possible, this would have caused market inefficiency as prices dont incorporate all information. Fama (1965) was the first one who coined the term efficient market. He held that such a market is one constituting of a large number of competing rational and active profit-maximisers who try to predict individual values of securities. Information in those markets tends to be almost free. He argued that the essence of ‘instantaneous adjustment in actual prices to new information is competition leading to efficiency in the market. Later, the random walk theory was broadened into a concept called the efficient market theory. Based on the works of Samuelson (1965) and Roberts (1967), Fama (1970) developed a second paper: Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. He distinguished between three levels of efficiency, as earlier initiated by Roberts (1967), based on three sets of information reflected in the price. He posited that a market is efficient in the weak-form if any information which might be contained in past price movements is already reflected in the security prices. It is semi-strong efficient when all relevant publicly available information is impounded in security prices while strong form efficiency suggests that security prices already reflect all available information, even private information. In this stream of literature, Malkiel (1992) contribution is elaborated in his essay Efficient market hypothesis in the New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance. He defines a capital market as efficient when it fully and correctly reflects all relevant information in security price determination. Hence, for some information set, à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t, the market is efficient if security prices are unaffected by unveiling that information to market participants. Then it becomes impossible to make economic profits by exploiting the information set. Hence, both the random walk theory and the EMH are related to informational efficiency. Then the form of efficiency under consideration will depend upon the information set, à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t, which determines the level of efficiency. 2.1.2 Weak Form Efficiency: Random walk and its critics Weak-form efficiency focuses on the informational content of the previous sequence of stock price movements. An informational efficient market postulates that excess return cannot be realised from information contained in past prices. The rationale behind weak-form efficiency is that stock prices are the most publicly available information so that an investor may not be able to use information, which is already available to others, to beat the market. A long considered necessary condition for an efficient asset market is the martingale process. Under market efficiency, the conditional expectation of future price changes, conditional on the price history, cannot be either positive or negative and therefore must be zero. In fact the martingale originated from gambling and the concept of fair game. Samuelson (1965) and Mandelbrot (1966) independently demonstrated that a sequence of prices of an asset is a martingale (or a fair game) if it has unbiased price changes. Danthine (1977), LeRoy (1976, 1989), Huang (1985) and Neftci (2000) held that if a security market can be equilibrium and for sure be a fair game, then the following equations must hold: Ept+1ÃŽ ©t=pt (1) Ept+1-ptÃŽ ©t=0 (1.1) Where t denotes the price of an asset at date t, à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t is a set of all past and current information regarding prices pt,pt-1,pt-2†¦.. and pt+1-pt=rt. Hence, the directions of the future movements in martingales are impossible to forecast. If pt is a martingale in equation (1), the best forecast of pt+1 that could be derived on basis of current information ÃŽ ©t, equals pt. For equation (1.1), rt is a fair game if the forecast is zero for any possible value of ÃŽ ©t. Then pt is a martingale only if rt is a fair game. In this case, asset price evolves in a random process so that the correlation coefficient between the successive price changes will be zero given information about current and past prices. However, most assets are expected to yield a non-zero and positive returns. The martingale hypothesis does not take into account the trade-off between risk and return as pointed out in financial economics. The model implicitly assumes risk neutrality while investors are generally risk averse. In fact, an investor is likely to hold more risky assets provided they are compensated in terms of higher expected returns. In this case, knowledge of the riskiness of current information set implies some awareness about the expected returns. Hence the equilibrium model shall predict a positive price change in the assets price though the actual return is still unforecastable under market efficiency. Then an asset model, considering positive returns, may be formulated as Fama (1970). He suggested the sub-martingale process: Ept+1à ¢Ã†â€™Ã¢â‚¬Å"à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t≠¥pt or alternatively Ert+1à ¢Ã†â€™Ã¢â‚¬Å"à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t≠¥0 (1.2) This states that the expected value of next periods price based on the information available at time t, à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t, is equal to or greater than the current price. Equivalently, it stipulates that the expected returns and price changes are greater or equal to zero. Market efficiency plus an equilibrium model for asset pricing normally produces a random character to asset prices or returns or excess returns. The equilibrium model generally shows how the assets expected return varies with its risk and this can be closely related to Famas sub-martingale model. However, the representative model for the asset uses log prices and the expected continuously compounded return, rt+1. Ert+1ÃŽ ©t=pt+1-pt (1.3) Under the efficient market hypothesis, investors cannot earn abnormal profits on the available information set other than by chance. This is in line with Jensen (1978) who defines a market as efficient with respect to the information set, à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t, if it not possible to make economic profits on the basis of this set of information. Hence, defining excess returns as zt+1: zt+1=rt+1-Ert+1à ¢Ã†â€™Ã¢â‚¬Å"à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t (1.4) Since market efficiency implies that all information is already impounded in stock prices, the following applies: Ezt+1à ¢Ã†â€™Ã¢â‚¬Å"à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t=0 (1.5) Under the assumption that the equilibrium model determining asset prices in (1.3) is assumed to be constant over time, the deduction is that expected return does not depend on the information available at time t such that: pt+1-pt=Ert+1à ¢Ã†â€™Ã¢â‚¬Å"à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¦t=Ert+1=r (1.6) Therefore market efficiency produces a result that implies that the changes in asset prices follow a random walk. The appropriate model would then be a random walk with drift where the arbitrary drift parameter, reflects how prices change on average to provide returns to holding the asset over time. The following equation sets the random walk model similar to the one defined by Lo and MacKinlay (1997): pt+1= ÃŽ ¼+pt+ ÃŽ µt+1 (1.7) rt= ÃŽ ¼+ÃŽ ±rt-1+ ÃŽ µt (1.8) If the stock price index follows a random walk, then, ÃŽ ± = 0. Generally, if stock prices and returns are unpredictable then time series have the property of random walk and white noise implying the validity of EMH. Thus, given an equilibrium model for asset pricing, the test for weak-form efficiency is that of random walk tests of market efficiency. Ko and lee (1991) maintained that â€Å"If the random walk hypothesis holds, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis must hold, but not vice versa. Thus, evidence supporting the random walk model is the evidence of market efficiency. But violation of the random walk model need not be evidence of market inefficiency in the weak form†. Depending on the restrictions put on the increments,ÃŽ µt+1, different forms of the random walk are tested. Within the random walk hypothesis, three successively more restrictive sub-hypotheses with sequentially stronger tests for random walks exists (Campbell et al. 1997). These are range from the most restrictive form of Random Walk 1 (RW1) to the least restrictive one which is the Random Walk 3 (RW3). Based on their extensive research, the orthogonality condition for the random walk is: covfrtgrt+k=0 (1.8) Where frt and grt+k are two arbitrary functions and rt and rt+k refers to the returns for period t and t+k respectively. If (1.9) holds for all functions frt,grt+k this corresponds to RW1 and RW2. The former is the most restrictive version of random walk model implying it is not possible to predict either future price movements or volatility based on past prices. It states that returns are serially uncorrelated with independently and identically distributed increments with mean, zero and variance, ÏÆ'2. Under RW2, the returns are serially uncorrelated, corresponding with a random walk hypothesis with increments that are independent but not identically distributed. In case frt,grt+k are arbitrary linear functions, the RW3 applies so that it is not possible to use information on the basis of past prices to predict future prices. Hence, returns in a market conforming to this standard of random walk are serially uncorrelated, corresponding to a random walk hypothesis with dependent but uncorrelated increments. The foundation of traditional tests of random walk rests on the assumption of IID. The most famous tests remain the sequences and reversals test proposed by Cowles and Jones (1937) and the runs test. Tests of RW2 and RW3 encompass the variance ratio tests and unit root tests which are more recent tools. Developed by Lo and MacKinlay (1988), hereby LM, the variance ratio tests out that the variance of the innovations pertaining to a random walk model is linear functions of time. This popular test does not restrict only to the RW1 but also to the RW2 and RW3. However, exclusion of non-linear analysis in financial series could lead to inappropriate deductions as regards weak-form efficiency. Indeed, the application of non-linear dynamics and chaos theory to financial series has shown that they evidence non-linear structure. In practice, returns distributions exhibit leptokurtic behaviours as opposed to normal distribution. They often reflect volatility clustering thereby the level of volatility in the next period tends to be positively correlated with its current level. Then it may be possible for information on the variance of past prices to predict the future volatility of the market. Indeed, share price movements could be unpredictable when using linear models but forecastable under non-linear models in the ‘short-run. This contradicts the use of linear models for testing the efficient market hypothesis. Further departures from the random walk hypothesis exist in the long-range dependence. This is analogous to high autocorrelation structure in a series so that there is persistent dependence between distant observations. In this case covfrtgrt+k does not tend to zero at higher lags. As regards market efficiency, persistence implies that past data contain useful information for prediction so that long memory violates the concept. Several tests have been developed for this purpose including the rescaled statistic to test for long-term ‘randomness of the market series and the ARFIMA-FIGARCH which categorises the long- and short-term memory based on the estimated value of the fractional difference. 2.2 Empirical Review Following the work of Fama (1965) â€Å"Random walk in stock prices† arguing for random walk hypothesis, a multitude of research has been performed throughout the world. While most of the well developed markets were found to be efficient, research findings of developing and less developed markets are mixed and controversial too. Most of the less developed market encounters the problem of thin trading. Besides, it is easier for large traders to manipulate small markets. Though emerging markets are generally assumed to be less efficient, empirical evidence does not always support the idea. Some previous research aiming at testing the weak-form efficiency of a particular group of stock markets are presented below. A research that aims at testing weak-form market efficiency in the equity markets of the three main Central European transition economies (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) is that of Gilmore and McManus (2001). Using different approaches comprising of univariate, multivariate tests as well as the model-comparison approach for the period July 1995 to September 2000 different conclusion were drawn. While the serial correlation-based tests largely support a conclusion that these markets are weak-form efficient, the results of comparing forecasts of alternative models are consistent in rejecting the random walk hypothesis. Examining the existence of weak-form efficiency in European stock market, Worthington and Higgs (2003) used daily returns for sixteen developed markets (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) and four emerging markets (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia) to perform a number of testing procedures of random walk. They started with the serial correlation coefficient test and the runs test, and found that Netherlands and Germany do follow a random walk while the United Kingdom, Ireland and Portugal were efficient under one test or the other. All remaining markets were weak form inefficient. Beside unit root tests (ADF, PP statistics and KPSS), the multiple variance ratio tests rejected the presence of random walk in most of the markets. While in the developed markets only the United Kingdom, Portugal, Ireland, Sweden and Germany satisfied the most stringent rand om walk criteria, in emerging markets only Hungary did so. Weak-form efficiency for emerging equity markets were also tested by Chang, Lima and Tabak (2003). They deduced that random walk hypothesis is not consistent with Asian equity markets while left apart Chile, Latin American indices resemble a random walk. Using daily prices from January 1992 to December 2002, multivariate variance ratios using heteroscedastic robust bootstrap procedures and test trading rules using trading range break (TRB) levels were employed. Taking the US and Japan as yardsticks, they were not able to reject the random walk hypothesis. Another study considering a group of selected Asian markets; Kim and Shamsuddin (2008) argues that market efficiency varies with the level of stock market development. Using new multiple variance ratio tests based on the wild bootstrap and signs as well as the conventional Chow-Denning test, they found that the Hong Kong, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese markets adhere to the martingale property while Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines markets are inefficient. Besides, the results revealed evidence that the Singaporean and Thai markets followed a random walk after the Asian crisis. As regards the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) stock markets, Elango and Hussein (2008) tested whether daily returns series are an approximation of normal distribution or not. Dubai, AbuDhabi, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain stock market indices were examined using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Runs test, Autocorrelation Function and Partial Autocorrelation Functions. The results revealed that the distribution of daily returns on these markets deviated from the normal distribution during the study period. Also, the runs test rejected the hypothesis of random walk for all seven markets. In his paper investigating the random walk hypothesis, Urrutia (1995), used monthly data from December 1975 to March 1991 for four Latin American equity markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico to observe whether they are weak-form efficient. He made use of the Variance-ratio tests and the runs tests. While results of the variance ratio estimatespixel rejects the random walk hypothesis, runs tests specify that Latin American equity markets are weak-form efficient. These empirical findings suggest that domestic investors might not be able to develop trading strategies that would allow them to earn excess returns. Using Lo-MacKinlay Variance ratio, Wrights rank and sign VR and the standard runs tests; Al-Khazali, Ding and Pyun (2007) revisited the validity of random walk hypothesis in eight emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia. When assessed by Wrights (2000) rank and sign VR test, all the markets rejected the hypothesis of random walk. However, once data are reconciled for distortions from thinly and infrequently traded stocks, all eight stock markets do follow a random walk. African countries were investigated in the paper ‘How Efficient are Africas Emerging Stock Markets by Magnusson and Wydick (2002). Testing procedures considered monthly data for eight African markets in comparison with nine other developing countries in Latin America and Asia. Distinguishing among the three types of random walk models, they started by testing the RW 3, by investigating the Partial Auto-Correlation Function(PACF) of the historical series and examining whether they are statistically different from zero. Markets in Botswana, Cote dIvoire, Kenya, Mauritius and South Africa did conform to the RW3 while those of Ghana, Nigeria and Zimbabwe were rejected. Proceeding with the RW2, excluding Botswana, results did not change. However none of the African Markets were conform to the RW1 White test for heteroscedasticity. They conclude that African countries do conform quite favourably to some regions of the developing world. Another research which focuses on African markets was that of Jefferis and Smith (2005). It covers seven African stock markets: South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Mauritius and Kenya and use a GARCH approach with time-varying parameters to detect changes in weak-form efficiency through time. They emphasised on RW 3 model with volatilities changing over time and found that Johannesburg stock market was weak-form efficient with no tendency to change like many other developed markets. On the other hand, the stock markets of Egypt, Morocco and Nigeria showed changing levels of inefficiencies to become weak-form efficient towards the end of the period. The results for Kenya, Zimbabwe and Mauritius, however, showed tendency towards efficiency and rejected the hypothesis of weak-form efficiency. Recently, McMillan and Thupayagale (2009) in their paper â€Å"The efficiency of African equity markets† examined long memory effects of both equity returns and volatility for eleven African countries, taking the UK and US as reference. They made use of unit roots test and the GARCH(1,1) models before proceeding with ARFIMA-FIGARCH and ARFIMA-HYGARCH models. They ended up with mixed results. The ARFIMA-FIGARCH models provide evidence for long term memory in African equity markets with the exception of Mauritius, Morocco, Botswana and Nigeria where the results were unpredictable. Also, the US stock return volatility was marked by long memory process while the UK was non-stationary. These results were further supported by the ARFIMA-HYGARCH models. 2.3 Conclusion During the course of the literature review, limited evidence on weak form efficiency of African markets was found. These countries have attracted significant investment these last years and are of much importance to portfolio managers. Univariate time series analysis might be important tool for technical analysts in trying to outperform these markets. Indeed, the battery of econometrics software now paves the way for investigation of the random walk hypothesis based on different sets of assumption. A preliminary analysis of the African markets shall provide us with an insight to efficiency based on their attributes and consultation of previous works. GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE AFRICAN STOCK MARKETS 3.0 Introduction African stock markets, following in the wake of the surge in the world stock markets over the few decades, are starting to take off. Recognizing the importance of stock markets in economic development, several African countries launched stock exchanges during the past two decades. The African Stock Exchange Association (ASEA) was, hence, set up in 1993 so as to promote the development of stock markets. Prior to 1989, there were just five stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa and three in North Africa. Today, Africa has about 20 active stock markets, with some exchanges more established than others, depending on when they were established. Alongside the rapid expansion of stock markets in the continent, there has also been a significant growth in market capitalization and the number of listed companies. However, with the exception of the well established markets, stock markets in Africa remain thin and illiquid. This study covers four African stock markets namely South Africa, Mauritius , Morocco and Egypt over periods for which data is available. Mauritius Stock Exchange Since its start of trading on the 5th July 1989 under the Stock Exchange Act of 1988, the Mauritius Stock Exchange (SEM) has come a long way. From a pre-emerging market with trading taking place only once a week, the SEM has emerged as one of the leading exchanges in Africa. It operates two markets namely the Official and the Development and Enterprise market (DEM), established in August 2006 to replace the over-the-counter market. The exchange is regulated by the Financial Services Commission. As the second sub-Saharan stock exchange member of the World Federation of Exchanges, SEM operates in line with international standards. In addition, its developing institutional and retail investor base make it an attractive investment destination for foreign investors. The SEM offers quite a limited range of products to its investors and the aim for the next few years would be to increase the range of products offered. The three main indices of the official market are namely the SEMDEX, SEM- 7 and the SEMTRI. As at 30 June 2009, some 40 companies, with a market capitalisation of Rs 130.77 bn, are listed on the Official market and 52 companies, with a market capitalisation of Rs 45.41 bn, are listed on the Development and Enterprise Market (DEM). The SEM maintained an upward momentum, amidst typical market fluctuations, until the end of February 2008. The total market capitalization of the Official Market and the DEM was Rs 173.1 bn at end 2007. This is in line with the levels observed in well-established emerging stock markets. However, like other exchanges, the SEM experienced market volatility since the start of the financial crisis in September 2008. The main pillars of the Mauritian economy were adversely affected and this reflected on hotels and banks stocks listed on the SEM. The market then picked-up by mid-March 2009 on the back of interest rate cuts and stimulus packages put forward by the Government of Mauritius. Johannesburg Stock Exchange The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), regulated by the Financial Services Board under the Securities Services Act 2004, is the largest exchange in Africa and among the top twenty largest in the world in terms of market capitalisation. JSE Securities Exchange existed since November 1887 and was incorporated as a public limited company on 1st July 2005, pursuant to its demutualization. Since then, the JSE has evolved from a traditional floor based equities trading market to a modern securities exchange providing fully electronic trading, clearing and settlement in equities, financial and agricultural derivatives and other associated instruments and has extensive surveillance capabilities. Technical agreement with the London Stock Exchange (LSE) enables dual primary listings on both exchanges since 2001. Between the listed entity and its trusted trading platforms the South African economy becomes an active hub of activity where expansion is encouraged, businesses are enhanced, performa nce is driven and shareholder value is created. The JSE currently operates four boards for the equities market and the South African bond market is a leader among emerging-market economies. The main market indices are Top 40, Industrial 25, All Share, Oil and Gas Index. As the gateway to Africas economy, the JSE provides the link between international markets and the continent. In 2008, a daily average of 334 million shares was traded on the JSE. At year-end, there were 992 listed securities on the JSE with a total market capitalisation of R4,514 billion compared to R5,696 billion in 2007. Casablanca Stock Exchange Founded in 1929, the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) in Morocco is relatively modern, having experienced reform in 1993. The exchange is well regulated by the Conseil Deontologique des Valeurs Mobilieres (CDVM). Originally, CSE had the Index de la Bourse des Valeurs de Casablanca (IGB) but this was replaced on January 2002 by two indexes: MASI (Moroccan All Shares Index) which comprises all listed shares, allows to follow up all listed values and to have a long-term visibility and MADEX (Moroccan Most Active Shares Index), comprisi

The tragic in Antony and Cleopatra Essays -- Shakespeare Tragedy Plays

The tragic in Antony and Cleopatra His captain's heart, Which in the scuffles of great fights hath burst The buckles on his breast, reneges all temper And is become the bellows and the fan To cool a gipsy's lust. Antony and Cleopatra seems to have a special place in Shakespeare's works because it is at a crossroad between two types of play. It clearly belongs to what are generally called the 'Roman' plays, along with Coriolanus and Julius Caesar. But it is also considered a tragedy. The importance of history in the play cannot be denied, especially where it is compared to Shakespeare's 'great' tragedies such as Hamlet and Romeo and Juliet. But one might wonder what is specifically tragic in Antony and Cleopatra, and what can be said about the tragic in a play which is so different from the other tragedies. It is clear that the notion of 'tragic' in the everyday sense is not necessarily the same as the notion of 'tragedy', which is a philosophical notion whose definition depends on which philosophic system one takes into account. In this article I shall take the term tragic in its literary and dramatic sense and try to define its main characteristics. Taking into account a wide corpus of plays, from Antiquity as well as from France and England, we can detect several constant features that can define the tragic. A tragedy usually shows a character that is outstanding by his rank or/and inner abilities, falling into misfortune as a result of fate, and because of an error or a weakness for which he is not really responsible. Several tragic elements can be detected in Antony and Cleopatra. First, we find characters that have high rank because they are outstanding figures; we also see a tragic situation because from the be... ...es. In fact the tragic might be more prominent in this hybrid play (both historical play and tragedy) Antony and Cleopatra, than it is in some of Shakespeare's 'great tragedies' such as Othello. Bibliography Angel-Perez, Elisabeth. 1997. Le thà ©Ãƒ ¢tre Anglais. Paris: Hachette Anouilh, Jean. 1946. Antigone, Paris: Editions de la Table Ronde Biet, Christian. 1997. La tragà ©die. Paris: Armand Colin Cuddon, J. A . 1992. The Penguin Dictionary Of Literary Terms And Literary Theory. Penguin USA Racine, Jean. 1674. Prà ©face of Iphigà ©nie en Aulide. Editions l'Intà ©grale 1667. Premià ¨re Prà ©face of Andromaque. Editions l'Intà ©grale 1677. Prà ©face of Phà ¨dre. Editions l'Intà ©grale Suhamy, Henri (directed by). 2000. Antony and Cleopatra. Paris: Ellipses 1. Article published in Antony and Cleopatra, directed by Henri Suhamy The tragic in Antony and Cleopatra

Most Powerful Person on Earth Essay

Who are the most powerful people of the world? My fellows from my play group gave me many different answers. What are your answers? Do you think the most powerful persons of the world are: moms and dads? The President? Strong peoples with huge muscles, hefty athletes, or muscular boxers? Kings, princes, and princesses which are richly dressed in ornamented clothing, and have servants? Businessmen that have a lot of money? Friendly teachers with their endless knowledge and smiling faces? I tried to guess your answers. Because, those are also my fellows answers. Most of us have an idea of power that is connected with control or strength, and certainly money. My fellows also think power is in adulthood, in addition to money and strength. But I don’t think the power in money, or strenght or adulthood. Power in not money. Money is temporary; you can make it and lose it. If power is related with money, when we lost our money, we must be lost our power. But if we can make money once, we can make it again. If we have self-assurance, intelligence, and ability to perform effectively, we have the power for making money again. Power is ability of having great influence or control over others. And, it is in bravery, frankness, honesty, and having big dreams. If you have big dreams, and believe in yourself; you can do everything you dreamed of. I have a different opponion about the most powerful people. Moms and dads are struggling for provide you a excellent future. They support, protect, and care for you. When you are ill, they spent sleepless night just beside of you. To most people, approaching the President is nearly impossible. But they show interest to you, especially youngers; they don’t say anything even tear their hairs. Every time, they develop projects for providing you a good education. Teachers use their knowledge for helping you on your life plan. Bussinessmen use their money for building new schools. All of them treat you more tolerant, even the laws. All people around you, your family, relatives, teachers, politicians, struggle for providing you a peaceful, wealthy and excellent life. I bet you guessed my answer. But I think the most powerfull peoples are children. They have the power of convince. Children have great influence and control over adults, and world because of their bravery, frankness, and honesty. With this power, you can change a difficult situation into an opportunity to do something good, and be admired for it. Please aware of your power, and opportunities that it provides you, and make use of it in the way of being a virtuous person for yourself, your family, your country, and the world!

The Return: Nightfall Chapter 22

Bonnie was disturbed and confused. It was dark. â€Å"All right,† a voice that was brusque and calming at once was saying. â€Å"That's two possible concussions, one puncture wound in need of a tetanus shot – and – well, I'm afraid I've got to sedate your girl, Jim. And I'm going to need help, but you're not allowed to move at all. You just lie back and keep your eyes shut.† Bonnie opened her own eyes. She had a vague memory of falling forward onto her bed. But she wasn't at home; she was still at the Saitou house, lying on a couch. As always, when in confusion or fear, she looked for Meredith. Meredith was just returning from the kitchen with a makeshift ice pack. She put it on Bonnie's already wet forehead. â€Å"I just fainted,† Bonnie explained, as she herself figured it out. â€Å"That's all.† â€Å"I know you fainted. You cracked your head pretty hard on the floor,† Meredith replied, and for once her face was perfectly readable: worry and sympathy and relief were all visible. She actually had tears pooling in her eyes. â€Å"Oh, Bonnie, I couldn't get to you in time. Isobel was in the way, and those tatami mats don't cushion the floor much – and you've been out for almost half an hour! Youscared me.† â€Å"I'm sorry.† Bonnie fumbled a hand out a blanket she seemed to be wrapped in and gave Meredith's hand a squeeze. It meantvelociraptor sisterhood is still in action . It also meantthank you for caring . Jim was sprawled on another couch holding an ice pack to the back of his head. His face was greenish-white. He tried to stand up but Dr. Alpert – it was her voice that was both crusty and kind – pushed him back onto the couch. â€Å"You don't need any more exertion,† she said. â€Å"But I do need an assistant. Meredith, can you help me with Isobel? It sounds as if she's going to be quite a handful.† â€Å"She hit me in the back of the head with a lamp,† Jim warned them. â€Å"Don't ever turn your back on her.† â€Å"We'll be careful,† Dr. Alpert said. â€Å"You two stayhere ,† Meredith added firmly. Bonnie was watching Meredith's eyes. She wanted to get up to help them with Isobel. But Meredith had that special look of determination that meant it was better not to argue. As soon as they left, Bonnie tried to stand up. But immediately she began to see the pulsating gray nothingness that meant she was going to pass out again. She lay back down, teeth gritted. For a long time there were crashes and shouts from Isobel's room. Bonnie would hear Dr. Alpert's voice raised, and then Isobel's, and then a third voice – not Meredith, who never shouted if she could help it, but what sounded like Isobel's voice, only slowed down and distorted. Then, finally, there was silence, and Meredith and Dr. Alpert came back carrying a limp Isobel between them. Meredith had a bloody nose and Dr. Alpert's short pepper-and-salt hair was standing on end, but they had somehow gotten a T-shirt onto Isobel's abused body and Dr. Alpert had managed to hang on to her black bag as well. â€Å"Walking wounded, stay where you are. We'll be back to lend you a hand,† the doctor said in her terse way. Next Dr. Albert and Meredith made another trip to take Isobel's grandmother with them. â€Å"I don't like her color,† Dr. Albert said briefly. â€Å"Or the tick of her tocker. We might as well all go get checked up.† A minute later they returned to help Jim and Bonnie to Dr. Albert's SUV. The sky had clouded over, and the sun was a red ball not far from the horizon. â€Å"Do you want me to give you something for the pain?† the doctor asked, seeing Bonnie eyeing the black bag. Isobel was in the very back of the SUV, where the seats had been folded down. Meredith and Jim were in the two seats in front of her, with Grandma Saitou between them, and Bonnie – at Meredith's insistence – was in the front with the doctor. â€Å"Um, no, it's okay,† Bonnie said. Actually, she had been wondering whether the hospital actually could cure Isobel of infection any better than Mrs. Flowers' herbal compresses could. But although her head throbbed and ached and she was developing a lump the size of a hard-boiled egg on her forehead, she didn't want to cloud her thinking. There was something nagging at her, some dream or something she'd had while Meredith said she'd been unconscious. Whatwas it? â€Å"All right then. Seat belts on? Here we go.† The SUV pulled away from the Saitou house. â€Å"Jim, you said Isobel has a three-year-old sister asleep upstairs, so I called my granddaughter Jayneela to come over here. At least it will be somebody in the house.† Bonnie twisted around to look at Meredith. They both spoke at once. â€Å"Oh, no! She can't go in!Especially not into Isobel's room! Look, please, you have to – † Bonnie babbled. â€Å"I'm really not sure if that's a good idea, Dr. Alpert,† Meredith said, no less urgently but much more coherently. â€Å"Unless she does stay away from that room and maybe has someone with her – a boy would be good.† â€Å"A boy?† Dr. Alpert seemed bewildered, but the combination of Bonnie's distress and Meredith's sincerity seemed to convince her. â€Å"Well, Tyrone, my grandson, was watching TV when I left. I'll try to get him.† â€Å"Wow!† Bonnie said involuntarily. â€Å"That's the Tyrone who's offensive tackle on the football team next year, huh? I heard that they call him the Tyre-minator.† â€Å"Well, let's say I think he'll be able to protect Jayneela,† Dr. Alpert said after making the call. â€Å"But we're the ones with the, ah,overexcited girl in the vehicle with us. From the way she fought the sedative, I'd say she's quite a ;;terminator' herself.† Meredith's mobile phone beeped out the tune it used for numbers not in its memory, and then announced, â€Å"Mrs. T. Flowers is calling you. Will you take the – † In a moment Meredith had hit thetalk button. â€Å"Mrs. Flowers?† she said. The hum of the SUV kept anything Mrs. Flowers might be saying from Bonnie and the others, so Bonnie went back to concentrating on two things: what she knew about the â€Å"victims† of the Salem â€Å"witches,† and what that elusive thought while she was unconscious had been. All of which promptly flew away when Meredith put down her mobile phone. â€Å"What was it? What?What? † Bonnie couldn't get a clear view of Meredith's face in the dusk, but it looked pale, and when she spoke shesounded pale, too. â€Å"Mrs. Flowers was doing some gardening and she was about to go inside when she noticed that there was something in her begonia bushes. She said it looked as if someone had tried to stuff something down between the bush and a wall, but a bit of fabric stuck up.† Bonnie felt as if the wind had been knocked out of her.†What was it?† â€Å"It was a duffel bag, full of shoes and clothes. Boots. Shirts. Pants. All Stefan's.† Bonnie gave a shriek that caused Dr. Alpert to swerve and then recover, the SUV fishtailing. â€Å"Oh, my God; oh, my God – he didn't go!† â€Å"Oh, I think he went all right. Just not of his own free will,† Meredith said grimly. â€Å"Damon,† Bonnie gasped, and slumped back into her own seat, tears welling up in her eyes and overflowing. â€Å"I couldn't help wanting to believe†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Head getting worse?† Dr. Alpert asked, tactfully ignoring the conversation that had not included her. â€Å"No – well, yes, it is,† Bonnie admitted. â€Å"Here, open the bag and give me a look inside. I've got samples of this and that†¦all right, here you go. Anybody see a water bottle back there?† Jim listlessly handed one over. â€Å"Thanks,† Bonnie said, taking the small pill and a deep gulp. She had to get her head right. If Damon had kidnapped Stefan, then she should be Calling for him, shouldn't she? God only knew where he would end up this time. Why hadn't any of them even thought of it as a possibility? Well, first, because the new Stefan was supposed to be so strong, and second, because of the note in Elena's diary. â€Å"That's it!† she said, startling even herself. It had all come flooding back, everything that she and Matt had shared†¦. â€Å"Meredith!† she said, oblivious to the side look which Dr. Alpert gave her, â€Å"while I was unconscious I talked withMatt . He was unconscious, too – â€Å" â€Å"Was he hurt?† â€Å"God, yes. Damon must have been doing something awful. But he said to ignore it, that something had been bothering him about the note Stefan left for Elena ever since he saw it. Something about Stefan talking to the English teacher about how to spelljudgment last year. And he just kept saying,Look for the backup file. Look for the backup†¦before Damon does .† She stared at Meredith's dim face, aware as they cruised slowly to stop at an intersection that Dr. Alpert and Jim were both staring at her. Tact had its limits. Meredith's voice broke the silence. â€Å"Doctor,† she said, â€Å"I'm going to have to ask you something. If you take a left here and another one at Laurel Street and then just drive for about five minutes to Old Wood, it won't be too far out of your way. But it'll let me get to the boardinghouse where the computer Bonnie's talking about is. You may think I'm crazy, but Ineed to get to that computer.† â€Å"I know you're not crazy; I'd have noticed it by now.† The doctor laughed mirthlessly. â€Å"And I have heard some things about young Bonnie here†¦nothing bad, I promise, but a little difficult to believe. After seeing what I saw today, I think I'm beginning to change my opinion about them.† The doctor abruptly took a left turn, muttering, â€Å"Somebody's taken the stop sign from this road, too.† Then she continued, to Meredith, â€Å"I can do what you ask. I'd drive you all the way to the old boardinghouse – â€Å" â€Å"No! That would be much too dangerous!† † – but I've got to get Isobel to a hospital as soon as possible. Not to mention Jim. I think he really does have a concussion. And Bonnie – † â€Å"Bonnie,† Bonnie said, enunciating distinctly, â€Å"is going to the boardinghouse, too.† â€Å"No, Bonnie! I'm going torun , Bonnie, do you understand that? I'm going torun as fast as I can – and I can't let you hold me up.† Meredith's voice was grim. â€Å"I won't hold you up, I swear it. You go ahead and run. I'll run, too. My head feels fine, now. If you have to leave me behind, youkeep on running. I'll be coming after you.† Meredith opened her mouth and then closed it again. There must have been something in Bonnie's face that told her any kind of argument would be useless, Bonnie thought. Because that was the truth of the matter. â€Å"Here we are,† Dr. Alpert said a few minutes later. â€Å"Corner of Laurel and Old Wood.† She pulled a small flashlight out of her black bag and shone it in each of Bonnie's eyes, one after another. â€Å"Well, it still doesn't look as if you have concussion. But you know, Bonnie, that my medical opinion is that you shouldn't be running anywhere. I just can't force you to accept to take treatment if you don't want it. But I can make you take this.† She handed Bonnie the small flashlight. â€Å"Good luck.† â€Å"Thank you for everything,† Bonnie said, for an instant laying her pale hand on Dr. Alpert's long-fingered, dark brown one. â€Å"You be careful, too – of fallen trees and of Isobel, and of something red in the road.† â€Å"Bonnie, I'm leaving.† Meredith was already outside the SUV. â€Å"And lock your doors! And don't get out until you're away from the woods!† Bonnie said, as she tumbled down from the vehicle beside Meredith. And then they ran. Of course, all that Bonnie had said about Meredith running in front of her, leaving her behind, was nonsense, and they both knew it. Meredith seized Bonnie's hand as soon as Bonnie's feet had touched the road and began running like a greyhound, dragging Bonnie along with her, at times seeming to whirl her over dips in the road. Bonnie didn't need to be told how important speed was. She wished desperately that they had a car. She wished a lot of things, primarily that Mrs. Flowers lived in the middle of town and not way out here on the wild side. At last, as Meredith had foreseen, she was winded, and her hand so slick with sweat that it slipped out of Meredith's hand. She bent almost double, hands on her knees, trying to get her breath. â€Å"Bonnie! Wipe your hand! We have to run!† â€Å"Just – give me – a minute – â€Å" â€Å"We don't have a minute! Can't youhear it?Come on! â€Å" â€Å"I justneed – to get – my breath.† â€Å"Bonnie, look behind you. And don't scream!† Bonnie looked behind her, screamed, and then discovered that she wasn't winded after all. She took off, grabbing Meredith's hand. She could hear it, now, even above her own wheezing breath and the pounding in her ears. It was an insect sound, not a buzzing but still a sound that her brain filed underbug . It sounded like the whipwhipwhip of a helicopter, only much higher in pitch, as if a helicopter could have insect-like tentacles instead of blades. With that one glance, she had made out an entire gray mass of those tentacles, with heads in front – and all the heads were open to show mouths full of white sharp teeth. She struggled to turn on the flashlight. Night was falling, and she had no idea how long it would be until moonrise. All she knew was that the trees seemed to make everything darker, and thatthey were after her and Meredith. The malach. The whipping sound of tentacles beating the air was much louder now. Much closer. Bonnie didn't want to turn around and see the source of it. The sound was pushing her body beyond all sane limits. She couldn't help hearing over and over Matt's words:like putting my hand in a garbage disposal and turning it on. Like putting my hand in a garbage disposal†¦ Her hand and Meredith's were covered with sweat again. And the gray mass was definitely overtaking them. It was only half as far away as it had been at first, and the whipping noise was getting higher-pitched. At the same time her legs felt like rubber. Literally. She couldn't feel her knees. And now they felt like rubber dissolving into gelatin. Vipvipvipvipveeee†¦ It was the sound of one of them, closer than the rest. Closer, closer, and then it was in front of them, its mouth open in an oval shape with teeth all around the perimeter. Just like Matt had said. Bonnie had no breath to scream with. But she needed to scream. The headless thing with no eyes or features – just that horrible mouth – had turned ahead of them and was coming right for her. And her automatic response – to beat at it with her hands – could cost her an arm. Oh God, it was coming for her face†¦. â€Å"There's the boardinghouse,† gasped Meredith, giving her a jerk that lifted her off her feet.†Run!† Bonnie ducked, just as the malach tried to collide with her. Instantly, she felt tentacleswhipwhipwhip into her curly hair. She was abruptly yanked backward to a painful stumble and Meredith's hand was torn out of hers. Her legs wanted to collapse. Her guts wanted her to scream. â€Å"Oh, God, Meredith, it's got me! Run!Don't let one get you!† In front of her, the boardinghouse was lit up like a hotel. Usually it was dark except for maybe Stefan's window and one other. But now it shone like a jewel, just beyond her reach. â€Å"Bonnie, shut your eyes!† Meredith hadn't left her. She was still here. Bonnie could feel vine-like tentacles gently brushing her ear, lightly tasting her sweaty forehead, working toward her face, her throat†¦She sobbed. And then there was a sharp, loud crack mixed with a sound like a ripe melon bursting, and something damp scattered all over her back. She opened her eyes. Meredith was dropping a thick branch she had been holding like a baseball bat. The tentacles were already sliding out of Bonnie's hair. Bonnie didn't want to look at the mess behind her. â€Å"Meredith, you – â€Å" â€Å"Come on – run!† And she was running again. All the way up the gravel boardinghouse driveway, all the way up the path to the door. And there, in the doorway, Mrs. Flowers was standing with an old-fashioned kerosene lamp. â€Å"Get in, get in,† she said, and as Meredith and Bonnie skittered to a stop, sobbing for air, she slammed the door shut behind them. They all heard the sound that came next. It was like the sound the branch had made – a sharp crack plus a bursting, only much louder, and repeated many times over, like popcorn popping. Bonnie was shaking as she took her hands away from her ears and slid down to sit on the entry-hall rug. â€Å"What in heaven's name have you girls been doing to yourselves?† Mrs. Flowers said, eyeing Bonnie's forehead, Meredith's swollen nose, and their general state of sweaty exhaustion. â€Å"It takes too – long to explain,† Meredith got out. â€Å"Bonnie! You can sit down – upstairs.† Somehow or other Bonnie made it upstairs. Meredith went at once to the computer and turned it on, collapsing on the desk chair in front of it. Bonnie used the last of her energy to pull off her top. The back was stained with nameless insect juices. She crumpled it into a ball and threw it into a corner. Then she fell down on Stefan's bed. â€Å"What exactly did Matt say?† Meredith was getting her breath back. â€Å"He saidLook in the backup – orLook for the backup file or something. Meredith, my head†¦it isn't good.† â€Å"Okay. Just relax. You did great out there.† â€Å"I made it because you saved me. Thanks†¦again†¦.† â€Å"Don't worry about it. But I don't understand,† Meredith added in her talking-to-herself murmur. â€Å"There's a backup file of this note in the same directory, but it's no different. I don't see what Matt meant.† â€Å"Maybe he was confused,† Bonnie said reluctantly. â€Å"Maybe he was just in a lot of pain and sort of off his head.† â€Å"Backup file, backup file†¦wait a minute! Doesn't Word automatically save a backup in some weird place, like under the administrator directory or somewhere?† Meredith was clicking rapidly through directories. Then she said, in a disappointed voice, â€Å"No, nothing there.† She sat back, letting her breath out sharply. Bonnie knew what she must be thinking. Their long and desperate run through danger couldn't all be for nothing. Itcouldn't . Then, slowly, Meredith said, â€Å"There are a lot of temp files in here for one little note.† â€Å"What's a temp file?† â€Å"It's just a temporary storage of your file while you're working on it. Usually it just looks like gibberish, though.† The clicking started again. â€Å"But I must as well be thorough – oh!† She interrupted herself. The clicking stopped. And then there was dead silence. â€Å"What is it?† Bonnie said anxiously. More silence. â€Å"Meredith! Talk to me!Did you find a backup file? â€Å" Meredith said nothing. She seemed not even to hear. She was reading with what looked like horrified fascination.

Following Her Heart †Creative Writing Story

Following Her Heart – Creative Writing Story Free Online Research Papers Following Her Heart Creative Writing Story Once upon a time, in the early 19th century a girl from a low class society lost her parents. She was left alone at the age of 14 and was looked after by her Aunty Rose. Aunty Rose, herself, had a family so she couldn’t spend a lot of time with Geneva. Geneva was a tall, slim girl with very blonde hair, so blonde, that it looked almost white. Her sparkling blue eyes showed her naà ¯ve behaviour towards life. Already for a month she was being raped by a neighbour who was supposed to take care of her, while Aunty Rose was away. Geneva was told not to tell anyone about this or she would be killed. It began gradually from making comments that the neighbour shouldn’t say to the whole sexual abuse. Then it was happening almost every time when Aunty Rose was not here. â€Å"Ok Geneva, I have to go, see you in a week.† Said Aunty Rose and as usual turned to Paul. â€Å"Paul will not look after you dear.† She said, smiling at Paul and leaving him with Geneva. In the evening Paul as usual went to play cards and after he cam back, he asked Geneva to undress. Geneva couldn’t bare it anymore and with a scream ran outside. She was running †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. and it was difficult for her to find a way because the pine forest crept in on all sides and †¦.. the trees were thickly grown. She came to an old house and fearing that she was chased, got inside. The air was hot and foul. Spider webs covered the whole place. It was dark and only on the second floor light was seen. She approached the stairs and began moving to the second floor. When she approached the room, it was deserted. She looked inside the window and saw an image. Geneva jumped backwards to the wall and recognized her mother. She could see her mother’s tears running down her cheeks. Geneva saw the sorrow on her mother’s face. The Geneva heard a voice. â€Å"I came here to warn you not to go back, follow your heart and you will find a peaceful place to live.† After these words her mother vanished. Geneva came out of the house and confused went to the direction she was looking at, following her heart. Research Papers on Following Her Heart - Creative Writing StoryThe Spring and AutumnThe Masque of the Red Death Room meaningsMind TravelThe Hockey Game19 Century Society: A Deeply Divided EraPersonal Experience with Teen PregnancyHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows EssayComparison: Letter from Birmingham and CritoHip-Hop is ArtUnreasonable Searches and Seizures

Woman in Black essays

Woman in Black essays 1) What was the play about? (brief synopsis) Mr. Kipps, the protagonist, has engaged a professional actor to help him learn to act out and reveal his play onstage to his family and friends. By the second act, a shy, timid, and nervous Kipps transforms into the superior actor. At this point, the boundary between Kipps' recollection of the incident merges into the reality of the play the audience is viewing. The audience learns that Kipps, as a young lawyer, was assigned to look after the affairs of a deceased Mrs. Drablow. He travels to gloomy and mysteriously silent Crythin-Gifford. He attends Mrs. Drablow's funeral and sees a thin, pale, and sickly woman walking around the graveyard. His curiosity of this vision and the towns peoples extreme secrecy of Mrs. Drablow's history leads him to her house: Eel Marsh House. There are loud and painful noises heard coming from a locked room in what should be an otherwise empty house. He becomes extremely frightened and nervous, but eventually is able to enter into the secret room. The room appears as if someone has recently spent time there- a child. He soon finds out from a local that the boy whose room he had entered was the son of Mrs. Drablow's sister. The boy was taken away from her and she died a hateful and unforgiving person. Kipps finds out that the vision of this ghost has extreme repercussions to the person who sees it. His child and wife die in a freak accident. They are thrown off of a carriage and hit a tree. The baby dies immediately, whereas the wife dies a few weeks later. At this point, the play reconstructs itself to an end and we are brought back to the hired actor and Kipps complementing how the other performs. In Act I, Kipps had told the Actor that he had a surprise for him. The Actor is now immensely impressed with this "surprise." The Actor asks Kipps who the woman in black is and where Kipps found her. Kipps is shocked and...